We are in a bus going 90 mph on a narrow road which forks on January 1, 2013. The current itinerary has us taking the road toward fiscal responsibility and recession. But I am in the camp that the drivers of the bus will suddenly (and at the very last minute) veer off course and onto the road of money printing and hyperinflation. Either way, the scenery isn’t going to be pretty.
On January 1, 2013, the current plan is for the following tax increases and austerity measures to go into effect (these measures do not require a vote, they just are):
1) The expiration of the Bush tax cuts (hit to investors)
2) The additional tax on investment income to fund Obamacare (hit to investors)
3) The expiration of the payroll tax reduction and unemployment benefit extension (hit to workers)
4) The implementation of the across-the-board spending cuts brought about by last summer’s debt ceiling/super-committee debacle (hit to government employees)
Of course, the anticipation of measures 1 & 2 will only serve to derail an already rocky recovery fueled exclusively by stock market equity gains. All those investors who (thanks to Jim Cramer et al) have been piling into the “safety” of dividend-paying stocks will just as suddenly start piling out as they realize that not only will their dividend income no longer qualify for capital gains treatment but be subject to medicare tax as well!
Measure 3 will result in workers making $50,000 having $1,000 less per year to spend at a time where every penny counts.
Measure 4 will result in increased unemployment in the public sector and a reduction in governmental contribution to GDP
Well, it’d be worth it, wouldn’t it? To put us on the path to fiscal solvency? The problem is, it won’t Taken as a whole, these measures wouldn’t even cut our current annual deficit of $1.4 trillion by 20%. We would still need to borrow over a trillion a year! So why do it? Because it might (and I say might) reassure our creditors that we are serious about dealing with our issues and lull them into continuing to hold/buy our bonds (at least for a while).
So why do I think the drivers of the bus will chose the other path instead, and why do I think the other path is hyperinflationary?
The petri dishes that are Japan and Europe have proven up what happens to countries who elect to get off the growth gravy train. Debt doesn’t really go down, but debt to GDP skyrockets and you end up in a worse place than if you hadn’t instituted austerity measures in the first place. It become hyperinflationary because when the jig is up and the world becomes convinced that you are taking the money printing path they refuse to buy your debt instruments at any price.
QE1, QE2, and QE2.5 (Operation Twist) have laid the groundwork for hyperinflation. By buying up long-date treasuries and selling short-dated treasuries, Bernanke has insured that foreigners and the public mostly own very short-term paper. In point of fact, the average maturity of US treasuries is less than four years. Because so much paper is short term, it would require a huge amount of money printing to buy up all of the new and rolling debt coming out over the next four years. I also believe that QE3 will be the tipping point in which the world becomes completely convinced that quantitative easing in the US has become structural (ie. QE will be henceforth be required to infinity and beyond)
There is lots and lots of hot money sitting on the sidelines waiting to see which way this game plays out, the reason being that the strategies for each path are 180 degrees apart. If we go the route of austerity, the last thing a person should want to hold are hard assets (you’ll be able to pick them up cheaper later on). If we go the route of hyperinflation then hard assets are the best investments to be holding (and you’d better be holding before TSHTF because you won’t be able to buy themduring).
So how will you know what to do before everybody else does? Other than buying PMs on the understanding that any pullback will only be temporary, I believe we may get an indicator of what the drivers are thinking this summer when the debt ceiling limit gets increased. If the government only raises the debt ceiling by enough to get through the election (say $500 billion) then austerity is still on the table. But if the debt ceiling is raised to $20 trillion or more (even removed altogether) then you can bet that 11th hour deals are in the works to extend the Bush tax cuts (good for investors) in exchange for extended benefits and postponement of austerity (good for workers) as was done on 1/1/2011, thus setting the stage for structural QE.
With due respect to the author, I disagree with the premise of the article. The 2nd sentence is painfully false. The fork in the road is a mural painted onto a brick wall. Hyperinflation is now the only way out, the choice made some time ago. If you want all the excruciating details, I would highly recommend John Williams hyperinflation report, among other sources.
I think the article was very well thought out. There are still a few analysts out there that feel that a deflationary scenario is possible. Not many. I think the Fed is between a rock and a hard place right now and they have to say that things are peachy for now. For the sake of Obama they are saying this. On the other hand, they will have to monetize any new debts that the public will not buy. I think that they will continue to print if push comes to shove. They can’t openly admit it. As the author states, once QE3 comes its all over for the US dollar. The whole world will know for sure that QE to infinity is the reality. Hyper will then come and visit. Jim Sinclair will be proven correct.
It is useful to note that QE never stopped. When the Fed purchases 61% of the bonds, that means they never stopped printing.
Secondly, allowing deflation means the banks commit suicide. They won’t do it.
While I agree that hyperinflation is inevitable, I also believe that the plan at present is to preserve the existing paradigm as long as possible. In order to accomplish this, I believe TPTB may feel it necessary to create the illusion that they intend to honor their debts in full. Should this happen, it is not only possible, but probable, that gold and silver will trade lower before they trade higher (just as they did in 2008).
I agree with the author about the price of metals. The price of metals will drop when Europe collapses. I have no doubt about this and the price will fall precipitously and be very uncomfortable during this time when money chases the perceived safety of the US dollar. I have decided not to try and time this event as when metals fall in price you take the risk of not being able to find metals to purchase. This means having to stand firm in our convictions. Metals will come back strongly when investors realize they have been fooled. The dollar will prove that it is no stronger than the Euro and that is when metals will enter its manic phase. I hope that TPTB can hold this off as long as possible because these will not be pleasant times to live thru.
The Chinese and Indians are the ones who will benefit the most from this anticipated metals drop. The Chinese have a long term plan to buy as much phyzz as possible for the next few years. They are good at this. They know how to buy without disturbing the markets. They like 1600 dollar gold right now. They will buy it all the way down as it goes down. The Chinese don’t want to establish any floor on the price. They will be quite pleased and happy to back up the truck and buy as much as they can at the lower prices. They are supposedly buying gold from the producers as well. I am sure that the long term goal is to have at least as much gold as we say we have in Europe and the US. The Chinese are good business men.
Regardless of all the speculation, (pro and con, hop-in, hop-out)each month I purchase a set dollar amount of silver. I cost average…and accumulate. This, for me, is the most sensible way to be prepared, and protected against the mathematically-certain destruction of the dollar.
Thank you, thirty-odd years of elected mis-representatives !
Hey Chris,
Just wanted to take a moment out of my life to thank you for all the life changing decisions/events that have occurred because of the information you've brought to the forefront when I discovered you, DTOM, & the SOL academy.
I shunned the psychopaths in my life, closed my facebook, took every hour of free time to see the academy and read A LOT (a first for me), learned that I have a deep innate thirst for knowledge and teaching, jumped head first on topics I would have NEVER taken an interest in if not for waking up (finance, economics, politics, psychology, to name a few), and view everything in a completely different, but forward thinking and more intricate way.
What you say is so true ... "once your eyes are open, you can never close them again" - EVER.
The magnitude of all the changes that I've made in my life because of the SOL academy are so huge that I can't even begin to put a word on it. It's like a golden seed of life, love & truth, planted in my mind that is making me realize what does matter, what is real, and what I want be at the end of the day to myself, loved ones, and the world.
Hope you're having a well-deserved and wonderful time with your family. A toast to you, the individuals in our group, and all the great and positive things to come despite such times.
Peace.
- Irving A.
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With due respect to the author, I disagree with the premise of the article. The 2nd sentence is painfully false. The fork in the road is a mural painted onto a brick wall. Hyperinflation is now the only way out, the choice made some time ago. If you want all the excruciating details, I would highly recommend John Williams hyperinflation report, among other sources.
(http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-2012)
I think the article was very well thought out. There are still a few analysts out there that feel that a deflationary scenario is possible. Not many. I think the Fed is between a rock and a hard place right now and they have to say that things are peachy for now. For the sake of Obama they are saying this. On the other hand, they will have to monetize any new debts that the public will not buy. I think that they will continue to print if push comes to shove. They can’t openly admit it. As the author states, once QE3 comes its all over for the US dollar. The whole world will know for sure that QE to infinity is the reality. Hyper will then come and visit. Jim Sinclair will be proven correct.
It is useful to note that QE never stopped. When the Fed purchases 61% of the bonds, that means they never stopped printing.
Secondly, allowing deflation means the banks commit suicide. They won’t do it.
While I agree that hyperinflation is inevitable, I also believe that the plan at present is to preserve the existing paradigm as long as possible. In order to accomplish this, I believe TPTB may feel it necessary to create the illusion that they intend to honor their debts in full. Should this happen, it is not only possible, but probable, that gold and silver will trade lower before they trade higher (just as they did in 2008).
Austerity…not a fucking chance.
The ones sitting on the sidelines with all the money will be easy to spot.
They will be the ones burning like a raging wildfire.
It is there destiny for being bought and paid for.
I agree with the author about the price of metals. The price of metals will drop when Europe collapses. I have no doubt about this and the price will fall precipitously and be very uncomfortable during this time when money chases the perceived safety of the US dollar. I have decided not to try and time this event as when metals fall in price you take the risk of not being able to find metals to purchase. This means having to stand firm in our convictions. Metals will come back strongly when investors realize they have been fooled. The dollar will prove that it is no stronger than the Euro and that is when metals will enter its manic phase. I hope that TPTB can hold this off as long as possible because these will not be pleasant times to live thru.
I agree with you that choosing the inflationary route (which we did) buys some time.
When/if the price of metals falls, 2 things will happen.
1. Those of us who have strong hands will rush to grab as much as we can
possibly grab for as long as we can.
2. The rest who may have an idea of what is happening will jusmp in with a
vengeance…$50 won’t even be a speed bump from that day forward.
I’ll add that many will feel very diffferent about the US dollar once that event occurs…and it will.
The Chinese and Indians are the ones who will benefit the most from this anticipated metals drop. The Chinese have a long term plan to buy as much phyzz as possible for the next few years. They are good at this. They know how to buy without disturbing the markets. They like 1600 dollar gold right now. They will buy it all the way down as it goes down. The Chinese don’t want to establish any floor on the price. They will be quite pleased and happy to back up the truck and buy as much as they can at the lower prices. They are supposedly buying gold from the producers as well. I am sure that the long term goal is to have at least as much gold as we say we have in Europe and the US. The Chinese are good business men.
Regardless of all the speculation, (pro and con, hop-in, hop-out)each month I purchase a set dollar amount of silver. I cost average…and accumulate. This, for me, is the most sensible way to be prepared, and protected against the mathematically-certain destruction of the dollar.
Thank you, thirty-odd years of elected mis-representatives !
“Elk” man…I like it!. When this all shakes out, it won’t matter how much you paid…it will be much you hold.
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